France vs Spain: Over 2.5 in an open semi-final

France and Spain meet with both coaches openly rejecting a closed, defensive script. Deschamps called the match spectacular and very open offensively, while De la Fuente vowed to impose Spain’s initiative yet still flagged the need to watch French counters. Those comments cut directly against the market’s assumption of a tight, controlled evening.

Transition weapons stretch the structure

France carry multiple match-winners who punish high lines and loose midfield screens. Mbappé’s expected return at full power, combined with Dembélé and Olise, creates vertical threats that can end phases quickly once space opens. Spain’s back four has looked solid, but the same unit has conceded late in two knockout ties already.

Tchouaméni’s partial fitness adds another layer of risk. The midfielder is available yet not fully recovered, which can leave gaps between the lines for Olmo and Yamal to exploit. If France’s screen wavers, Spain’s tempo play turns into sustained pressure rather than sterile possession.

Both sides carry late-game scoring patterns

Spain’s recent knockout wins have come through second-half or stoppage-time strikes, with Merino repeatedly decisive from loose situations. France’s own run shows they can shift gears once an opponent is forced to chase. Neither team has shown interest in protecting a narrow lead in this tournament.

The left-wing selection for France and the Pedri-Fabián debate for Spain are tactical choices, not rotation moves. Both managers have stressed maximum stakes and full-strength selections. That removes the usual semi-final caution and points to a match where quality and intent produce goals rather than stalemate.