France vs Spain: the fireworks that won't be lit

On paper, this is the match the neutrals have been praying for: Mbappé and Dembélé against Yamal and Olmo, two galleries of talent, one ticket to the New York final. The bookmaker has read the guest list and priced a spectacle, gently nudging the total towards Over. It is a seductive story — and, I suspect, the wrong one.

How they actually got here

Look past the star names at the scorelines. France's knockout run reads 3-0, 1-0, 2-0; Spain's reads 3-0, 1-0, 2-1. Deserved victories, all of them, but late and nervy rather than lavish — the football of sides who have learned that in July, control beats chaos.

Spain's last two wins arrived through Merino's stoppage-time finishes against Portugal and Belgium. That is not the signature of a team trading blows; it is a team hoarding the ball, draining the tempo and waiting for one loose moment in the box.

Deschamps has already told us the plan

The most revealing quote of the build-up came from the French bench. Deschamps publicly ceded favourite status to Spain, praised their defensive record, and made clear his side will respect that control rather than play naively open.

Translated from coach-speak: France will sit deeper than their attackers' reputations suggest and pick their counter moments. With Mbappé's ankle only just cleared and Tchouaméni admittedly not at 100 percent, there is little appetite for an open track meet.

Two of the tidiest defences left standing

De la Fuente's Spain is built on a solid back four, Rodri as the hinge and a genuine control floor. France, meanwhile, have looked increasingly calm at the back through the whole run. Neither manager wants to be the one whose single mistake ends the dream.

Add the natural handbrake of a World Cup semi-final — where caution is a virtue, not a flaw — and the firework show the line is anticipating starts to look distinctly damp. Both benches have settled into low-event, high-stakes football, and that is exactly the profile a cagey Under thrives on.

I did glance at the alternatives. Spain outright is tempting given the neutral mood, but the price sits beyond reach and their handicap offers nothing; France to win is fairly priced, no misjudgement to exploit. The one spot where the crowd leans the wrong way is the total.