Belgium vs Iran: cover the Asian line
Step into SoFi Stadium on Sunday evening, where Group G’s big-name side faces a rugged, resourceful Iran outfit that knows exactly how to frustrate. Belgium need a win to steady their tournament after a flat 1-1 draw with Egypt, but their attacking armour has a visible dent — Jérémy Doku is out of the squad entirely with a worsening respiratory issue, and Romelu Lukaku is not expected to start.
The missing puzzle piece
Doku is Belgium’s only pure 1v1 wide destroyer, the player who can take two defenders out of the game in one move. Without him, Belgium lose their sharpest weapon against a deep, compact block — exactly the shape Iran will show. Manager Rudi Garcia confirmed Doku’s absence, calling it a medical decision; Belgian media described it as a “flinke aderlating” — a significant blow.
Leandro Trossard will move to the left, and Alexis Saelemaekers steps in on the right. Both are good players, but neither offers Doku’s constant isolation threat. The attack becomes more predictable: crosses from full-backs, combinations around the box, and trying to find Kevin De Bruyne in small pockets. Iran’s 5-4-1 low block is built to swallow exactly that.
Iran’s compact shell and punch
Iran showed against New Zealand they can hold their own defensively and hurt opponents on the break. They scored twice through their right side — Ramin Rezaeian’s delivery and Mohammad Mohebi’s header — and will look to repeat that pattern against Belgium’s left flank. Mehdi Taremi remains a genuine elite-level forward; his hold-up play and ability to turn defence into attack will be Iran’s main outlet.
Coach Amir Ghalenoei has shifted to a five-man defensive line compared to the 4-4-2 used against New Zealand, a clear signal that the plan is to absorb and counter. The travel situation has been a talking point — Iran were forced out of the US quickly after their opener and have had less recovery time than Belgium — but if anything, that siege mentality can sharpen focus rather than dull it.
The numbers behind the decision
Belgium’s recent form is instructive: they needed an own goal to rescue a point against Egypt, and their 5-0 thrashing of Tunisia came after a red card changed the game state. Against a structured, motivated Iran side, the Red Devils will huff and puff, but covering a two-goal margin is a much harder ask than the market suggests.
Iran’s own attacking threat means a 2-1 Belgian win — which would still leave the Asian side covering the +1.5 line — is a very plausible outcome. The alternative under 2.5 goals is a narrower needle to thread; Iran’s counter-punching ability makes a 1-0 or 2-0 shutout less certain than the defensive shape implies. The +1.5 line absorbs the risk beautifully.
