Tunisia vs Japan: Goals Hard to Come By

Scrolling through the pre-match odds, you'd think Japan are about to run riot. But dig into the fitness reports and the tactical reset, and a very different story emerges. The total line at 2.5 goals is flattering an attack that has lost its sharpest tools, while underestimating a desperate Tunisia side under a brand-new manager.

Take a look at Japan's injury list: Takefusa Kubo is out with a left-knee problem, Kaoru Mitoma and Takumi Minamino were ruled out before the tournament, and Wataru Endo is missing altogether. That's four first-choice players – their best creator in tight spaces, their most dangerous left-sided dribbler, a proven finisher, and the midfield anchor who controls transitions. Without them, Japan's attack becomes predictable and wing-dependent.

I watched Japan struggle to break down a compact Iceland in a friendly without Mitoma, needing a late goal to scrape a 1-0 win. Now they face a Tunisia side that has every reason to sit deep and stay compact. After a 5-1 thrashing by Sweden and a 5-0 friendly loss to Belgium, the Tunisian federation sacked Sabri Lamouchi mid-tournament. Enter Hervé Renard, a coach whose first job is damage control.

Renard's public message was simple: lift your heads and draw a line under Sweden. Expect a back-to-basics 4-2-3-1 with two defensive midfielders, narrower spacing, and a refusal to chase the game early. Tunisia's back four will be protected by Ellyes Skhiri and Rani Khedira, while Hannibal Mejbri looks to link counter-attacks. The goal is survival first – keep the game alive into the second half, then hope for a set-piece or a defensive lapse.

Japan will dominate possession, but their creative hub is missing. Without Kubo's ability to draw defenders and switch play, they become more reliant on crosses from Sugawara and Nakamura, and on set-pieces. Meanwhile, Tunisia's new goalkeeper Chammekh has earned the starting spot and faces a Japan side that, despite their quality, lack the incision to break down a motivated low block. The altitude and humidity in Monterrey only add to the difficulty of a high-tempo, goal-filled game.