Germany vs Paraguay: goals on the cards as spine cracks
Foxborough, Massachusetts — The World Cup Round of 32 brings Germany and Paraguay together at Gillette Stadium, and the betting market might be missing the biggest story of the night: Paraguay's defensive spine is in tatters. The Albirroja held Australia to a 0-0 draw in their group finale with a near full-strength back five and Diego Gómez shielding the centre-backs. Neither of those key pieces are certain to be on the pitch here.
The missing midfield general
Diego Gómez is suspended after picking up his second yellow card against Australia. That is a hammer blow for Gustavo Alfaro's side. Gómez was the one player who could win the ball, carry it out of pressure, and find the early pass to spring Miguel Almirón or Julio Enciso on the counter. Without him, Paraguay lose their only reliable transition outlet against a team that will dominate possession.
Alfaro himself admitted after the Australia game that Paraguay have “only three or four players in Europe” and that decision-making quality comes from elite competition. Gómez is one of those exceptions. His absence forces Alfaro into a more passive block, one that will sit deeper and longer — and that invites Germany to set up camp in the final third.
Aldrete doubt piles on the pressure
Centre-back Omar Alderete is practically ruled out with a knee issue. He was the organiser of the back three, the left-sided stopper who covered space and started attacks. Without him, José Canale steps in — a capable defender but not at the same level. Paraguay's clean sheet against Australia came with Alderete on the pitch for 70 minutes. Take him away, and the back line suddenly looks vulnerable to Germany's interchanging front four.
And it doesn't stop there. Winger Ramón Sosa is also nursing an ankle problem and is expected to be protected. That removes another outlet for Paraguay to hold the ball high up the pitch. The visitors are essentially walking into this knockout tie without their most important defensive midfielder, their most reliable centre-back, and a pace threat on the flank.
Germany’s attack ready to explode
Germany, by contrast, have all their creative weapons available. Julian Nagelsmann has kept his cards close to his chest on the starting XI, but all indications point to a full-strength lineup: Neuer in goal, Kimmich at right-back, and a front four of Sané, Musiala, Wirtz and Havertz. That is a lot of movement, dribbling and finishing talent for any defence to handle — even more so for a Paraguay side missing its spine.
The German attack has been building momentum. Even in the 2-1 loss to Ecuador — a game where they rested some players — they had 11 shots and 61% possession. Against Ivory Coast they needed late heroics from Deniz Undav, who has become the ultimate impact substitute. Undav has scored in two straight games and will likely be unleashed early in the second half if the score is tight. With Amiri and Goretzka also available off the bench, Germany can sustain pressure for 90 minutes.
Rudi Völler has warned about “unnecessary giveaways in midfield,” which is the real risk — but Paraguay's ability to capitalise on those giveaways is severely reduced without Gómez. The German midfield can afford to take risks knowing the counter-threat is blunted.
Paraguay can still contribute to the total
It is not all one-way traffic. Paraguay scored in two of their three group games, and they did it in quick bursts: Matías Galarza's goal after 64 seconds against Turkey, and the early pressure against USA that briefly gave them hope. Miguel Almirón returns from suspension and adds speed and directness that were missing against Australia. If Germany push high and commit numbers forward, Paraguay will get one or two clear chances — and a 2-1 or 3-1 scoreline is well within reach.
The market has Over 2.5 goals priced at 1.73, which feels short given the defensive disruptions on one side and the attacking depth on the other. Germany have scored at least twice in every competitive match this tournament except the Ecuador defeat, and Paraguay have conceded four to a USA team that presses similarly to Germany. The match flow is set up for goals: German pressure, a weakened Paraguay block, and enough counter-attacking quality from Almirón and Enciso to keep the total ticking.
