Paraguay vs Australia: Goals Could Flow in a Livewire Finale
This is not a dead rubber. Paraguay need a win to leapfrog Australia into second place in Group D, and the Socceroos know a draw is enough. But listen to the tone from both camps: this is a final. The market, however, has priced this like a tactical chess match — the total line at 1.5 goals hints at a cagey, low-event affair. I think the bookmaker has misread the room.
The Game State Dictates Action
Paraguay simply cannot sit back. They are chasing three points, and even though they miss suspended playmaker Miguel Almirón — their main ball-carrier in transition — they have shown they can score early. Just ask Turkey, who conceded in the opening minutes. Julio Enciso, still the creative spark, will have to drop between the lines to unlock Australia's compact block.
Australia, for their part, have match-winners who thrive in space. Nestor Irankunda has been electric off the bench and is pushing for a starting role. Daniel Arzani-type talent, direct and fearless. Against a Paraguay side that will eventually commit numbers forward, the Socceroos have the counter-attacking weapons to punish — and they showed against Turkey they can finish those chances.
Forced Changes Create Vulnerability — and Opportunity
Both teams are dealing with confirmed absences. Almirón's red card is a huge blow for Paraguay: he was the one player who could carry the ball under pressure and unbalance a set defence. Diego Gómez is a major doubt with a muscular issue, which would weaken the midfield-to-attack connection. That makes Paraguay less fluid, but it also means they will rely on set pieces and second balls — areas where Australia have their own aerial strength.
Australia are hit harder on the right flank. Jacob Italiano and Mat Leckie are both out, meaning an improvised right side. Jason Geria or Kai Trewin are the likely replacements. That patchwork could be exploited by Matías Galarza's late runs from midfield and Junior Alonso's overlapping. The Socceroos' back five will be tested in transition more than the scoreboard suggests.
Both Sides Already Proven They Can Score
Paraguay managed goals against the USA (a consolation) and an early strike against Turkey. Australia bagged two against Turkey and, despite losing 2-0 to the USA, had chances in transition. The key stat: neither team has kept a clean sheet against a top-15 opponent in this tournament. When the stakes rise in the second half, risk-taking will increase. The probability of at least two goals is far higher than the market's implied 61%.
I also weighed the draw — it fits the tactical profile of a cautious opening hour. But Australia's defence shipped two against the USA and nearly crumbled under late pressure from Turkey. The draw at 2.35 is not a clear edge. Paraguay outright at 2.78 had arguments, but without Almirón and with Diego Gómez doubtful, it is too risky.
