Turkey vs USA: A handicap worth its weight in pride
Mauricio Pochettino has been crystal clear: the four US players carrying yellow cards – Chris Richards, Antonee Robinson, Tyler Adams and Folarin Balogun – will not start. Add Christian Pulisic’s calf question mark, and what remains is a USA side stripped of its defensive anchor, its ball-winning engine and its primary goal threat. The bookmaker’s line, however, still prices this as if the A-team will roll out and dominate.
Turkey are eliminated and winless, but their performances tell a different story from the results. Against Australia they had 62% possession and 17 shots; against Paraguay they controlled territory for long spells after the early red card to Almirón. The problem has not been creating chances – it has been converting them. Now they face a makeshift US backline that has never played together, likely featuring Joe Scally, Miles Robinson, Auston Trusty and Max Arfsten.
Pochettino has stressed he still wants to win, and his fringe players will be hungry. But the tactical reality is that a rotated defence – especially the centre-back and left-back positions – will struggle to cope with Turkey’s technical creators. Hakan Çalhanoğlu, Arda Güler and Kenan Yıldız have the quality to unlock even the most motivated second-string unit. Meanwhile, Turkey’s own motivation is genuine: Vincenzo Montella is fighting for his job, and the squad wants to avoid a humiliating zero-point, one-goal campaign.
Turkey’s finishing remains a concern, which is why the outright win (around 4.50) was never the play. But the +1.5 handicap covers every scenario except a USA win by two or more goals. Given that the USA will be without its starting centre-back, left-back, defensive midfielder and striker, a blowout seems far-fetched. Turkey could even win outright, but the safer path is to back them to keep the margin narrow.
The market has overcorrected for USA’s group-stage momentum and ignored the scale of rotation. The Americans have won both games with a fully fit and available squad; now they face a desperate, ball-dominant Turkey with a patchwork defence. This is not the same USA team that beat Paraguay 4-1. Value lies with the underdog plus the generous handicap.
