England vs Ghana: Ghana can make the favourite work
England meet Ghana at 23 June 2026, 20:00 UTC in World Cup 2026 group play, and the market has put a top hat on England's superiority. Fair enough, too, but the question is not who looks stronger.
This bet is about the size of the win England are being asked to produce. For my money, that is where the line gets a little too enthusiastic, like a waiter topping up a glass that was already full.
A favourite, but not a runaway cart
England should be front-footed under Thomas Tuchel. With Rice, Bellingham, Kane, Madueke and Gordon in the likely attacking structure, they have enough craft and punch to keep Ghana under pressure.
The second half against Croatia was the sort of spell that makes opponents check the clock twice. Bellingham drove through midfield, Kane stayed ruthless, and the bench still had real bite.
Yet England were not spotless in that game. Croatia found joy when England dropped too deep and when the defensive spacing went a touch wobbly, which matters against a Ghana side built to counter.
Saka being managed is also relevant. Madueke has been bright, but Saka from the start is a different kind of lock-pick, and England may again lean on impact minutes rather than opening with every attacking card face up.
Ghana have the tools to stay stubborn
Ghana's win over Panama was gritty rather than glossy. They did not create a festival of chances, but they did show patience, kept believing, and nicked the late moment through a sharp transition.
The key change here is Thomas Partey's expected return. That gives Ghana a proper bolt across midfield, not enough to stop England knocking, but enough to make the door rattle rather than fly open.
Carlos Queiroz is unlikely to invite a basketball match. Ghana can sit compact, protect the centre, and ask Semenyo, Sulemana or Ayew to carry the ball into the space England leave behind.
That sort of plan does not require Ghana to dominate possession. It asks them to avoid the quick collapse, win second balls, and make England think before throwing both full-backs into the same postcard.
There are concerns, of course. Kudus is absent, the goalkeeper situation is not ideal, and England's set pieces could turn a calm evening into a saucepan with the lid jumping.
But the handicap needs more than England being better. It needs a heavy, clean, efficient England win, and against a reinforced Ghana midfield with a clear defensive brief, that feels a shade too demanding.
